Politics

Middle East: Gaza attacks central to Israeli elections, say analysts
Israel's attacks in the Gaza Strip will have a crucial impact on the fortunes of political leaders ahead of national elections in February. Some Middle East analysts even believe the offensive is a cynical move to boost domestic popularity.
Jerusalem/Beirut, 2 Jan. (AKI) - As Israeli leaders showed no sign of ending the week-long air attacks in the Gaza Strip on Friday, the political impact of their action was already being assessed. Analysts told Adnkronos International (AKI) that attacks on the ruling Hamas movement were certain to boost the flagging popularity of Defense Minister and Labour Party leader, Ehud Barak, and the political fortunes of acting Prime Minister Tzipi Livni.
One poll published in the the daily, Haaretz, has already shown that Barak's domestic popularity has been boosted by Israel's action.
Michael Widlanski, a research fellow at the Shalem Center in Jerusalem, said that support for the Labor Party leader had collapsed in the past six months and Barak needed to show Israelis he was decisive.
"The current warfare, which is justified, is an opportunity for him to solidify his base with the centre and the right," Widlanksi said.
As prime minister in 2000, Barak decided to withdraw Israeli forces from Lebanon. While the move was well received at the time, it was later questioned by many Israelis after the Lebanon war of 2006.
Widlanski said the Gaza offensive which has killed more than 400 people and injured more than 2000 others,would be a test of the Defense Minister's resolve.
"There is no question that the public was clamouring for a strong response to the situation in Gaza as it had in Lebanon," he said. "But the government of Olmert and Livni had not exactly shown forthrightness or decisiveness."
In the Haaretz poll published on Thursday, 53 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with Barak's performance - up from 34 percent six months ago.
The turnaround means that the current coalition between Barak and Livni may be renewed.
But Widlanski stressed that Hamas, far more than the Israeli leaders, had really "set the stage" for Israel's action in Gaza. He said Hamas had launched 223 rockets and 130 mortar shells at Israel during the six month truce that ended in December and most took place in the past six weeks.
He said Hamas militants had launched a total of 800 attacks throughout 2007.
"Hamas has been escalating (their attacks) since the middle of November. They have been the ones that set the agenda. If you look back at Prime Minister Olmert, Livni, (President Shimon) Peres and even Barak they have basically been reactive," Widlanski said.
Talal Nizameddin, political analyst at The American University, said despite denials by the Israeli leaders, domestic political considerations were the main reason for the attacks against Gaza.
He told AKI both Barak and Livni were using the air raids to foil hardline political rival Binyamin Netanyahu, from the right-wing Likud Party.
"This would leave Netanyahu with no options. What would Netanyahu do if he does win the elections? That would make him meaningless as an Israeli prime minister because he promised to come in as a tough leader who would clean up Gaza from what he calls Palestinian terrorism," he told AKI.
"In my opinion, there is a clear hint of political manoeuvering."
Livni is the newly elected head of the ruling conservative Kadima Party, while Barak leads the centre-left Labour Party. He was prime minister from 1999 to 2001.
Israel's elections are due to take place on 10 February after Livni, currently Foreign Minister, failed to form a government in October to replace outgoing prime minister, Ehud Olmert, who is now facing corruption charges.
However the election date may be postponed until 17 February due to a Jewish holiday.
One poll published in the the daily, Haaretz, has already shown that Barak's domestic popularity has been boosted by Israel's action.
Michael Widlanski, a research fellow at the Shalem Center in Jerusalem, said that support for the Labor Party leader had collapsed in the past six months and Barak needed to show Israelis he was decisive.
"The current warfare, which is justified, is an opportunity for him to solidify his base with the centre and the right," Widlanksi said.
As prime minister in 2000, Barak decided to withdraw Israeli forces from Lebanon. While the move was well received at the time, it was later questioned by many Israelis after the Lebanon war of 2006.
Widlanski said the Gaza offensive which has killed more than 400 people and injured more than 2000 others,would be a test of the Defense Minister's resolve.
"There is no question that the public was clamouring for a strong response to the situation in Gaza as it had in Lebanon," he said. "But the government of Olmert and Livni had not exactly shown forthrightness or decisiveness."
In the Haaretz poll published on Thursday, 53 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with Barak's performance - up from 34 percent six months ago.
The turnaround means that the current coalition between Barak and Livni may be renewed.
But Widlanski stressed that Hamas, far more than the Israeli leaders, had really "set the stage" for Israel's action in Gaza. He said Hamas had launched 223 rockets and 130 mortar shells at Israel during the six month truce that ended in December and most took place in the past six weeks.
He said Hamas militants had launched a total of 800 attacks throughout 2007.
"Hamas has been escalating (their attacks) since the middle of November. They have been the ones that set the agenda. If you look back at Prime Minister Olmert, Livni, (President Shimon) Peres and even Barak they have basically been reactive," Widlanski said.
Talal Nizameddin, political analyst at The American University, said despite denials by the Israeli leaders, domestic political considerations were the main reason for the attacks against Gaza.
He told AKI both Barak and Livni were using the air raids to foil hardline political rival Binyamin Netanyahu, from the right-wing Likud Party.
"This would leave Netanyahu with no options. What would Netanyahu do if he does win the elections? That would make him meaningless as an Israeli prime minister because he promised to come in as a tough leader who would clean up Gaza from what he calls Palestinian terrorism," he told AKI.
"In my opinion, there is a clear hint of political manoeuvering."
Livni is the newly elected head of the ruling conservative Kadima Party, while Barak leads the centre-left Labour Party. He was prime minister from 1999 to 2001.
Israel's elections are due to take place on 10 February after Livni, currently Foreign Minister, failed to form a government in October to replace outgoing prime minister, Ehud Olmert, who is now facing corruption charges.
However the election date may be postponed until 17 February due to a Jewish holiday.
 












