Security
Terrorism: Al-Qaeda 'weaker' after 9/11 but still a threat
Rome, 10 Sept. (AKI) - Eight years since Al-Qaeda's '9/11' attacks against US cities, the terrorist network has been weakened, but remains a serious security threat, experts have told Adnkronos International (AKI). The suicide attacks against the World Trade Centre in New York, and the Pentagon in Washington DC on 11 September 2001 killed almost 3,000 people in the deadliest attack ever carried out on US soil.
"Al-Qaeda is no longer capable of carrying out a big attack. Its capability appear to have been degraded over the years," said Brian Michael Jenkins, an advisor to the president of the US Rand Corporation think-tank.
"It has had great difficulty in sustaining a global campaign of terrorism," he added.
Jenkins said greater cooperation between intelligence and law enforcement agencies worldwide had made Al-Qaeda's operations more difficult.
There have been fewer jihadist terror attacks on the West in recent years, while the number of bungling 'homegrown' plotters has grown, he argued.
Jenkins cited as an example the botched June 2007 firebombing of Glasgow airport in Scotland by a group of Muslim doctors and researchers working in Britain.
Two members of the group were severely burned when they rammed a jeep loaded with propane gas cannisters into the airport terminal. The jeep driver later died of his injuries.
"The pace of terrorist operations outside Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq has declined. Outside these countries, there is a problem of 'quality control'. Individuals lack the competence of their predecessors," Jenkins stated.
"Until 2006, Al-Qaeda was carrying out an attack every two months," Jenkins said.
"We now see occasional attacks, especially the recent attacks by a splinter group of Jemaah Islamiyah in Jakarta," he said, referring to the Al-Qaeda linked southeast Asan terror network.
Terror attacks in Indonesia, Morocco, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Spain galvanised governments into taking action against Al-Qaeda, Jenkins noted.
"They no longer saw Al-Qaeda as engaged in a direct contest between Al-Qaeda and the United States but as a threat to their own countries," he said.
Al-Qaeda's indiscriminately murderous attacks have angered many Muslims, who have found themselves targeted as well as "infidels". The attacks have even provoked debate among jihadist strategists themselves, Jenkins argued.
But he doubted such an ideological group as Al-Qaeda would be deterred by a lack of popularity.
"It's a tiny little army determined to carry out its 'God-mandated' struggle," he said.
"It is 100 little conflicts linked by a network of like-minded extremists across the globe, a cove of terrorists hiding out in Pakistan...an active communications system and a successful brand name picked up by local followers."
The US has improved domestic security since the '9/11' attacks and an American citizen's chances of being killed in a terror attack there are one in a million - far lower than of dying in a car crash or being murdered - Jenkins claimed.
But he warned security agencies not to lower their guard against other attempted attacks on US soil or elsewhere.
"We have seen some degree of tenacity and persistence with Al-Qaeda," he said.
"It has to be an operative presumption that Al-Qaeda will try again. It would be wildly irresponsible to think otherwise. "
A prominent British terrorism expert agreed with Jenkins' assessment.
"We should take the threat of Al-Qaeda seriously," Paul Wilkinson told AKI. "There is no evidence it has gone out of business."
Al-Qaeda acts as the hub of an alliance or coalition of groups sharing the same ideology, and is especially dangerous in the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan, where it is based, Wilkinson said.
"We know it is active in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Iraq and Somalia. And it is attempting to consolidate its control in West Africa, where there is a large Muslim community and there is evidence some groups there have been influenced by Al-Qaeda."
Al-Qaeda has suffered some setbacks, for example in Iraq where the US-backed Awakening Councils headed by Sunni tribal chieftains have had some success in fighting it, Wilkinson noted.
"But we are dealing with a transglobal movement," he said. Wilkinson is former director of the University of St Andrews Centre for the Study of terrorism and emeritus professor of international relations at the university.
"Pakistan has made considerable efforts to stop the Pakistani Taliban. But the situation is very serious in Afghanistan, where there is concern that extremists could seize control."
Wilkinson and Jenkins agreed that one of Al-Qaeda's primary roles nowadays is providing support and expertise for hundreds of affiliated groups around the world.
"We've seen from trials between 2006 to 2008 in Britain there is clear evidence of people travelling to Pakistan," he said.
But the US and Europe are safer than they were in 2001, he argued.
"This is mainly due to intelligence cooperation and the quality of policing and knowledge now available, which has made the authorities more capable of dealing with threats."
"Otherwise there would have been far more people injured."
Edwin Bakker, from the Netherlands Clingendael Institute of International Relations think-tank, struck a more cautious note.
"In Europe we should remain worried, especially because of the threat from outside Europe. Al-Qaeda and groups that are affiliated with it, still want to hit the West and are more than ever under pressure to be successful," he told AKI.
"Growing criticism within the Muslim world about the fact that after 9/11 most casualties have been Muslim forces them to focus more on targets in the West and western targets elsewhere. "
He said western intelligence services need to cooperate "intensively" with less accessible places such as Somalia or the Pakistan-Afghan border area, where jihadists are less easy to monitor than a 'home-grown' plot.
"These partners may have gained a lot of experience in recent years but are not of the same quality or as reliable as Western intelligence services.
In other words, the chances that a terrorist group manages to slip under the radar seem to have increased in recent years," Bakker concluded.
"Al-Qaeda is no longer capable of carrying out a big attack. Its capability appear to have been degraded over the years," said Brian Michael Jenkins, an advisor to the president of the US Rand Corporation think-tank.
"It has had great difficulty in sustaining a global campaign of terrorism," he added.
Jenkins said greater cooperation between intelligence and law enforcement agencies worldwide had made Al-Qaeda's operations more difficult.
There have been fewer jihadist terror attacks on the West in recent years, while the number of bungling 'homegrown' plotters has grown, he argued.
Jenkins cited as an example the botched June 2007 firebombing of Glasgow airport in Scotland by a group of Muslim doctors and researchers working in Britain.
Two members of the group were severely burned when they rammed a jeep loaded with propane gas cannisters into the airport terminal. The jeep driver later died of his injuries.
"The pace of terrorist operations outside Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq has declined. Outside these countries, there is a problem of 'quality control'. Individuals lack the competence of their predecessors," Jenkins stated.
"Until 2006, Al-Qaeda was carrying out an attack every two months," Jenkins said.
"We now see occasional attacks, especially the recent attacks by a splinter group of Jemaah Islamiyah in Jakarta," he said, referring to the Al-Qaeda linked southeast Asan terror network.
Terror attacks in Indonesia, Morocco, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Spain galvanised governments into taking action against Al-Qaeda, Jenkins noted.
"They no longer saw Al-Qaeda as engaged in a direct contest between Al-Qaeda and the United States but as a threat to their own countries," he said.
Al-Qaeda's indiscriminately murderous attacks have angered many Muslims, who have found themselves targeted as well as "infidels". The attacks have even provoked debate among jihadist strategists themselves, Jenkins argued.
But he doubted such an ideological group as Al-Qaeda would be deterred by a lack of popularity.
"It's a tiny little army determined to carry out its 'God-mandated' struggle," he said.
"It is 100 little conflicts linked by a network of like-minded extremists across the globe, a cove of terrorists hiding out in Pakistan...an active communications system and a successful brand name picked up by local followers."
The US has improved domestic security since the '9/11' attacks and an American citizen's chances of being killed in a terror attack there are one in a million - far lower than of dying in a car crash or being murdered - Jenkins claimed.
But he warned security agencies not to lower their guard against other attempted attacks on US soil or elsewhere.
"We have seen some degree of tenacity and persistence with Al-Qaeda," he said.
"It has to be an operative presumption that Al-Qaeda will try again. It would be wildly irresponsible to think otherwise. "
A prominent British terrorism expert agreed with Jenkins' assessment.
"We should take the threat of Al-Qaeda seriously," Paul Wilkinson told AKI. "There is no evidence it has gone out of business."
Al-Qaeda acts as the hub of an alliance or coalition of groups sharing the same ideology, and is especially dangerous in the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan, where it is based, Wilkinson said.
"We know it is active in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Iraq and Somalia. And it is attempting to consolidate its control in West Africa, where there is a large Muslim community and there is evidence some groups there have been influenced by Al-Qaeda."
Al-Qaeda has suffered some setbacks, for example in Iraq where the US-backed Awakening Councils headed by Sunni tribal chieftains have had some success in fighting it, Wilkinson noted.
"But we are dealing with a transglobal movement," he said. Wilkinson is former director of the University of St Andrews Centre for the Study of terrorism and emeritus professor of international relations at the university.
"Pakistan has made considerable efforts to stop the Pakistani Taliban. But the situation is very serious in Afghanistan, where there is concern that extremists could seize control."
Wilkinson and Jenkins agreed that one of Al-Qaeda's primary roles nowadays is providing support and expertise for hundreds of affiliated groups around the world.
"We've seen from trials between 2006 to 2008 in Britain there is clear evidence of people travelling to Pakistan," he said.
But the US and Europe are safer than they were in 2001, he argued.
"This is mainly due to intelligence cooperation and the quality of policing and knowledge now available, which has made the authorities more capable of dealing with threats."
"Otherwise there would have been far more people injured."
Edwin Bakker, from the Netherlands Clingendael Institute of International Relations think-tank, struck a more cautious note.
"In Europe we should remain worried, especially because of the threat from outside Europe. Al-Qaeda and groups that are affiliated with it, still want to hit the West and are more than ever under pressure to be successful," he told AKI.
"Growing criticism within the Muslim world about the fact that after 9/11 most casualties have been Muslim forces them to focus more on targets in the West and western targets elsewhere. "
He said western intelligence services need to cooperate "intensively" with less accessible places such as Somalia or the Pakistan-Afghan border area, where jihadists are less easy to monitor than a 'home-grown' plot.
"These partners may have gained a lot of experience in recent years but are not of the same quality or as reliable as Western intelligence services.
In other words, the chances that a terrorist group manages to slip under the radar seem to have increased in recent years," Bakker concluded.
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