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Correction in Uncertainty Intervals for Cumulative COVID-19 Death Forecasts in Europe

08 aprile 2020 | 05.27

LETTURA: 2 minuti

SEATTLE, April 8, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington released the following statement:

An unintentional upload error to our data visualization tool has resulted in IHME issuing incorrect ranges of cumulative deaths in Europe related to COVID-19 in an April 7 press release and on its website. Specifically, the error was associated with the range of possible numbers of cumulative deaths over the course of the pandemic – from the Institute's lowest expected number of cumulative deaths, the "mean" or likely number of potential deaths, and the highest number of cumulative deaths. The figures in the visualization for the range of daily deaths, hospitalizations, ICU bed-days and ventilator need are correct. IHME regrets the data upload error.

The projected deaths below provide the correct ranges. IHME will continue to update hospital usage, ventilator usage and projected deaths on a daily basis.

Upcoming forecasts will reflect our corrected approach. Please visit healthdata.org for information.

Location	Mean	Lower	Upper
Austria	385	238	770
Belgium	3546	2024	6232
Bulgaria	303	79	1146
Croatia	166	49	854
Cyprus	54	16	131
Czechia	411	120	1704
Denmark	529	242	1279
Estonia	484	51	2071
Finland	225	56	721
France	15058	9401	27727
Germany	8802	2255	23727
Greece	457	155	1141
Hungary	477	104	1686
Ireland	401	208	626
Italy	20300	18531	22824
Latvia	125	6	858
Lithuania	104	27	445
Luxembourg	69	41	191
Malta	19	1	112
Netherlands	5808	2358	19173
Norway	669	164	1104
Poland	1953	392	6504
Portugal	471	348	765
Romania	804	267	2541
Slovakia	251	13	2015
Slovenia	104	43	424
Spain	19209	14605	30616
Sweden	4182	801	4724
United Kingdom	66314	14573	219211