BRUSSELS, May 4, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Beijing is vigilantly watching Russia-Ukraine events to inform and update its geostrategic and military assumptions. But widespread concerns that China has similar designs for Taiwan are ill-founded. Moreover, the way the Ukraine situation is unfolding makes a Chinese assault less likely, not more.
Those insights and more are from Taiwan ≠ Ukraine: A Pragmatic Assessment, a new analysis of the Sino-Western geopolitical landscape by The Conference Board.
China's military unreadiness, western resolve to support Taiwan, and the huge economic costs that sanctions would impose are three reasons why a Ukraine-like invasion of Taiwan is not in the cards. However, ever since the start of this war in late February, businesses must be ready for 'grey swans' and prepare for all eventualities.
"What we have learned from Ukraine is that we cannot categorically rule out Chinese aggression, based on our assumptions of what is rational," said David Hoffman, Senior Vice President, Asia, at The Conference Board." Given the high dependency of multinationals on the Taiwanese semiconductor industry, companies and policymakers would be wise to plan for the worst and seek to reduce semiconductor supply chain concentrations on the island."
Without regard for the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, contingency planning for geopolitical instability is now a mission-critical risk management requirement for multinational businesses, especially with respect to China-related tensions.
Key insights from Taiwan ≠ Ukraine: A Pragmatic Assessment:
For more information on how the war in Ukraine may be impacting the East Asian geopolitical landscape, Read the report or contact The Conference Board for commentary.
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About The Conference BoardThe Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org
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