The European Union needs to act rapidly in Libya or crucial 24 December polls could be cancelled and fresh instability engulf the war-ravaged state, according to former interior minister Marco Minniti.
"If we don't intervene soon, it will be hard to hold 24 December elections in Libya," Minniti told German daily Die Welt in an interview on Friday.
"And if there are no polls, there is a high risk of renewed tensions in the country," Minniti said.
An absence of Europe in Libya could allow Russia and Turkey to carve up the former Italian colony, as has occurred in Syria, Minniti warned.
"Libya could be split into a Turkish and a Russian zones of influence like in Syria. This would be a crushing defeat for Europe - another Afghanistan," Minniti underlined.
Europe needs to seek "migration and economic development pacts" with Tunisia and Libya this year to combat the dramatic surge in Mediterranean migration, Minniti argued.
"First and foremost, Europe needs to offer Tunisia and Libya migration and economic development pacts. We must act swiftly without delay," said Minniti.
"It is also important to invite Libya and Tunisia to step up the fight against human trafficking," Minniti stated.
Since 2018, the focus has been on redistributing asylum-seekers within the EU, noted Minniti, who is the architect of a controversial 2017 deal to stem Mediterranean migration by committing Italy to training and equipping the Libyan coastguard and by financing migrant centres, alongside the EU.
"But there can be no agreement on changes to the Dublin regulation (governing which EU member state takes charge of an asylum claim), unless we first accept the challenge posed by Africa," he said.
While EU states tussle over immigration and asylum issues, Turkey and Russia have slipped into Libya, Minniti noted.
"We are talking about an epoch-making and (previously) unthinkable geopolitical change," he underlined.
"In 2017, I would never have believed that the Turks and the Russians would have gained a foothold in Libya."
Europe often focusses on the East and its challenges, while Russia and Turkey, two 'Eastern powers", are now in Libya and Syria, Minniti highlighted.
"The EU must acknowledge that equilibriums in the Mediterranean are shifting and that they will be dealing with this for decades," he said.
"And this is because Europe has yet to understand that the enlarged central Mediterranean region will have a decisive impact on its future."
